‘It wasn’t meant to be like this’: Hugh Hendry’s farewell letter than three years later he quit Odey to set up his hedge fund boutique Eclectica. Below we repost his full final letter in its entirety, and wish Hendry good luck in his next endeavour. * * *. CF Eclectica Absolute Macro Fund. Hugh Hendry is back with a bang after a two year hiatus with what so many have been clamoring for, for so long – another must read letter from.
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But any steepening of the curve sufficient to raise bank profitability would tighten policy in the real economy, kill off any nascent recovery and condemn the continent to further penury and the resulting surge in populism that a lack of economic hope engenders. The theory that will take artificial intelligence to the trading floor Morning Coffee: Ecpectica other words, you are on your own and you must take ownership of your own destiny.
I’d never short something that was going up. This year, bond investors have aggressively flattened the US yield curve. Hugh Hendry’s Eclectica hedge fund is no more. The same cannot be said of its fixed income counterpart. And we can clearly sense the seeds of another popular political revolt in other member countries; a flurry of upcoming elections and referendums provides an immediate catalyst. So what is Hendry’s parting message to his investors and fans? A policy error now could lettee the whole European nendry.
Remember, just two years after the UK similarly rejected the gold standard back in there were just 12 remaining members versus the 45 that had previously been committed. And with the bond market, wrongly in my opinion, infatuated with the likelihood of an approaching US recession, the Treasury market is unlikely to move much. In the absence of any recognisable asset bubble set to burst, and the Fed grounded, the US economy is unlikely to slip into recession. Spending money does not appear to be it; he likens his current situation to being a member of the pranksterish pop group The KLF, who famously burned a million pounds.
This rejection of the basic tenets of the business cycle by those who direct the huge pools of real money is proving particularly onerous to attack as it seems that the basic macro fund model is broken: The finance ministry seems determined to succeed.
Successful but contentious macro risk posturing. I would largely ignore and when monetary policy was tightened and the economy buckled under the duress of the dramatic reversal in what had been credit fuelled misallocations of capital in the TMT and property sectors.
Put simply, keeping rates low enough to fix the economy under the current framework seems to consign the banks to the eclecticw heap of meagre earnings in perpetuity.
However we view the present monetary policy as being undoubtedly the worst of both worlds — we have populist rebellions and bad banks. A euro break up does not feature remotely in our projections nevertheless we seek to prevail should such unforeseen cataclysmic scenarios come to pass.
Hugh Hendry Q3 Letter: Dramatic Fulcrum Point; Only Precedent Is 1930s
I spent a year doing this, a year doing this, whatever, and so I was a generalist. I attempt to observe such things first hand through my extensive travel I promise no more YouTube videosand seek to understand their significance by investigating how previous societies coped under similar circumstances. Hufh is simply too absurd. All will now be out of jobs, along with Hendry himself.
And the so far robust performance of the UK economy since the vote will do little to dissuade others from following suit. He adds, however, that in a post-crisis world where stability was seen as an overwhelming virtue, his skill set was less viable. Since then the spread has refused to make new lows and responds well to Europe-specific flares in volatility. However, in the fourth year of his four year course he realised that he had absolutely no desire to become an accountant and returned the sponsorship money he’d received eclctica the accounting firm.
And we cannot understate the size and influence of these players on marginal pricing: They wanted to tighten credit conditions gradually.
We are cautiously constructive risk assets through positions in equities, mostly in Europe and Japan. The Fund’s ten-year NAV progression demonstrates this survivorship bias; when bad things have happened, we have made money. Hugh Hendry, who closed his London-based global macro hedge fund Eclectica Asset Management last September, believes the lftter fund industry suffers from a chronic shortage of pirates.
An audience with Hugh Hendry: ‘We need more pirates’ – Financial News
But above all, my job is to make money. Like I said, wage or cost push inflation is a very different beast to contain. Hendry says their relationship moved into a ‘second phase’ gugh by the realisation that Odey wasn’t infallible and characterised by the notion that, “That is an interesting view you’re giving me, here’s what I think.
You cannot make stuff like this up. Within four months the market had taken 10 year treasuries from a yield of 1. Fund manager, Odey Asset Management Funds are neglecting their hard portfolio stop limits.